The New Zealand dollar moved according to the flute of the RBNZ, but certainly not in the most straightforward manner. The jobs report is the big event of the upcoming week. Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.
The RBNZ cut rates but the kiwi bounced. It was an exaggerated “buy the rumor, sell the fact†response and was especially strange with the promise to do more. Later on, we did see a correction, when the kiwi failed to rise on an excellent retail sales report. Will its behavior return to normal? In the US, data has been mostly positive.
Updates:
NZD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- GDT Price Index: Tuesday, during the European afternoon. The Global Dairy Trade is basically the price of milk, New Zealand’s main export. Prices surprised with a jump of 6.6%. The bi-weekly indicator could fall now.
- Jobs report: Tuesday, 22:45. Employment figures are released only once per quarter, making every publication a big event. This time, the labor cost index is not released, as this has already happened. However, the employment change and unemployment rate are more important. Employment advanced by 1.2% in Q1, an impressive outcome. The unemployment rate stood at 5.7%. We now get the data for Q2.
- PPI: Tuesday, 22:45. Producer prices are also released only once per quarter but play second fiddle to the Consumer Price Index. PPI Input fell by 1% in Q1 and could bounce now. The less important PPI Output slipped by 0.2%.
- Visitor Arrivals: Thursday, 22:45. Tourism is another significant sector of the New Zealand economy. A drop of 1% was seen in June, mid-winter in the country. A stable figure could be seen now.
- Credit Card Spending: Friday, 3:00. With retail sales published only once per quarter, this gauge of consumer spending is eyed. A y/y rise of 4.1% was seen in June.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
