AUD/USD Forecast Nov. 7-11

AUD/USD gained 60 points last week, as the pair closed at the 0.7660 line. There are 8 events this week. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

US job numbers were solid last week. Non-Farm Payrolls were upbeat and wage growth improving to 0.3%, above the estimate of 0.2%. The Fed refrained from raising rates last week, but the policy statement was slightly hawkish, as the Fed gave a thumbs-up to the economy, noting that inflation was moving closer to the Fed inflation target of 2.0%. As expected, the RBA maintained rates at 1.50%.

AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

1. AIG Construction Index: Sunday, 22:30. The construction indicator improved to 51.4 in September, compared to 46.6 points in August. Will the upward swing continue in October?
2. ANZ Job Advertisements: Monday, 00:30. This employment indicator declined 0.3% in September, well of the August pace of a 1.8% gain. The markets are hoping for a positive reading in August.
3. NAB Business Confidence: Tuesday, 00:30. The indicator has shown solid growth in the past two months, with readings of +6 points. This monthly release does not have as much impact as the quarterly release, which also came in at +6 points in the third quarter.
4. Chinese Trade Balance: Tuesday, Tentative. Key Chinese indicators can have a significant impact on the Australian dollar, as China is Australia’s largest trading partner. China’s trade surplus sagged in September to $278 billion, well off the forecast of $365 billion. The indicator is expecting a strong turnaround in October, with an estimate of $366 billion.
5. Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Tuesday, 23:30. An improvement in consumer confidence often translates into stronger consumer spending, which is critical for economic growth. In September, the indicator gained 1.1%.
6.  MI Inflation Expectations: Thursday, 00:00. This indicator helps analysts predict actual inflation levels. The indicator improved to 3.7% in September, marking a 4-month high.
7.  Home Loans: Thursday, 00:30. Home Loans provides a snapshot of the level of activity in the housing sector. The indicator has struggled, posting three declines in the past four releases. Another decline is expected in the September reading, with an estimate of -1.5%.
8. RBA Assistant Governor Guy Debelle Speaks: Friday, 1:00. Debelle will speak at an event in Melbourne. The markets will be looking for clues regarding the RBA’s future monetary policy.