The first trading day of the week has no significant economic releases. The global markets are therefore expected to trade in a narrow range throughout the day after a long weekend in the US, and ahead of key economic releases this week.
On Tuesday, traders will be looking for many economic releases in Asia, Europe, and the US, which is set to have a notable impact on the markets. In this article, we will review the upcoming data from Japan, analyze what its implications and discuss the outlook of JPY ahead of the data.
Definitions:
- Household Spending: This index measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all expenditures by consumers. It is released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends.
- Unemployment Rate: Percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and was actively seeking employment during the previous month.
- Retail Sales YoY: This indicator measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. It is released monthly, about 27 days after the month ends.
Why Do These Figures Matter?
- Household Spending: Consumer spending accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. It’s one of the most important gauges of economic health due to the vast ripple effect that consumer buying creates in the economy.
- Unemployment Rate: Tends to have a muted impact relative to employment data from other countries because the Japanese economy is more reliant on the industrial sector than personal spending.
- Retail Sales: It’s the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
Expectations
| Indicator |
Forecast |
Prior |
| Household Spending |
-1.0% |
-2.1% |
| Unemployment Rate |
3.0% |
3.0% |
| Retail Sales YoY |
-1.5% |
-1.7% |
The expectations point to mixed data, but most of the data points to some weakness. Household Spending may decline for the 8th consecutive month. YoY Retail Sales is also set to decline for the eighth month in a row, a pattern we have not seen since 2009. Finally, the unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 3.0% which matches the lowest level since 1995.
