Canadian GDP is a measurement of the production and growth of the economy. Analysts consider GDP one the most important indicators of economic activity. A reading which is better than the market forecast is bullish for the Canadian dollar.
Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for USD/CAD.
Published on Wednesday at 13:30 GMT.
Indicator Background
The Canadian GDP is released monthly, unlike most other developed countries which post GDP on a quarterly basis. The key indicator provides an excellent indication of the health and direction of the economy. Traders should pay close attention to this indicator, as an unexpected reading can quickly affect the movement of USD/CAD.
Canadian GDP dipped to 0.2% in August, matching the forecast. The downward trend is expected to continue in the September report, with the estimate standing at 0.1%.
Sentiments and levels
The US dollar has posted broad gains in recent weeks and with a December rate hike virtually certain, the greenback should continue to post strong gains against risk currencies like the Canadian dollar. So, the overall sentiment is bullish on USD/CAD towards this release.
Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.3672, 1.3551, 1.3457, 1.3351, 1.3219 and 1.3081
5 Scenarios
- Within expectations: -0.2% to +0.4%. In such a scenario, USD/CAD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
- Above expectations: 0.5% to 0.9%. An unexpected higher reading could send the pair below one support line.
- Well above expectations: Above 0.9%. A surge by the indicator would likely push USD/CAD downwards, and a second support level might be broken as a result.
- Below expectations: -0.7% to -0.3%. A weak reading could cause the pair to climb and break one level of resistance.
- Well below expectations: Below -0.7%. A strong contraction in economic growth would likely hurt the loonie and USD/CAD could break above a second resistance level.
