AUD/USD Forecast Feb. 20-24

AUD/USD showed little movement during the week, but closed the week almost unchanged, at 0.7654. This week’s key event is Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

In the US, retail sales and CPI were better than expected and also Yellen sounded upbeat about the US economy. In Australia, Employment Change remained strong, beating the estimate for a third straight month. The US dollar gained ground but gave up these gains late in the week.

Updates:

AUD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

1. RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 00:30. The minutes provide details of the February policy meeting, at which the RBA held rates at 1.50%. Analysts will be looking for hints regarding the timing of a rate move.
2. CB Leading Index: Tuesday, 15:30. This minor index is based on 7 economic indicators. The index rebounded in November, posting a gain of 0.5%.
3. RBA Governor Philip Lowe Speech: Tuesday, 21:30. Lowe will speak at an event in Sydney. A speech that is more hawkish than expected is bullish for the Australian dollar.
4. MI Leading Index: Tuesday, 23:30. This index is based on 9 indicators, but most of the data has been previously released. The index improved to 0.4% in January.
5. Construction Work Done: Wednesday, 00:30. The indicator continues to record declines, pointing to contraction in the construction sector. The indicator posted a sharp decline of 4.9% in the third quarter, worse than the estimate of -1.5%. The markets are expecting a rebound in Q4, with an estimate of 0.5%.
6. Wage Price Index: Wednesday, 00:30. Wage growth has been fairly steady in recent months. The estimate for Q4 stands at 0.5%.
7. Private Capital Expenditure: Thursday, 00:30. This is the key event of the week. The indicator has struggled, with only gain since Q4 of 2014. The estimate for Q1 stands at -0.4%.
8. RBA Governor Philip Lowe Speech: Thursday, 22:30. Lowe will testify before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics in Sydney. The markets will be looking for clues regarding future monetary policy.