European shares are lower, pressured by disappointing results by Deutsche Bank and ending a six-session gain, as Asian equities and S&P futures were little changed after a record-setting rally in world stocks which pushed the MSCI World index to over $50 trillion yesterday, fizzled after Trump released unconvincing tax cut plans prompting traders to “sell the news” while caution set in as the ECB met.
Markets were disappointed after Trump’s plans to slash company tax rates to 15 percent from the current 35 percent and 39.6 percent for small firms offered no details on how they would be paid for. Billed beforehand as the biggest tax cut in history, it amounted to little more than a one-page plan and fueled the suspicion that it could run into opposition from U.S. lawmakers worried about increasing the country’s debt levels.
“There was virtually no new information, just as expected. He was essentially repeating his campaign promises,” said Tomoaki Shishido, senior fixed income strategist at Nomura Securities.
In Europe, key markets traded as much as 0.7% lower as traders pulled back after six days of unbroken gains fueled by relief at the outcome of the first round of France’s presidential election and encouraging earnings and economic data. As Reuters observes “Asia felt groggy too” despite the BOJ offering its most upbeat economic assessment in nine years but Asia-Pacific shares ended flat a day after hitting their highest in almost two years.The yen slipped as the Bank of Japan kept its stimulus policies unchanged.
Deutsche Bank shares fell as much as 3.5 percent even as its first-quarter net profit more than doubled following a rebound in bond trading. It shares have nearly doubled though after worries about its future late last year. Elsewhere, upbeat results from the likes of SKF, Bayer and Subsea 7, companies closely geared to economic growth, were cheered as more investors piled into the European recovery story.
For currency traders, it was a session full of drama as the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar jumped, reversing earlier declines, after the White House said it won’t immediately terminate participation in the North American Free Trade Agreement. As reported previously, Trump’s top advisers have been embroiled in a debate over how aggressively to proceed on reshaping U.S. participation in NAFTA, with hard-liners favoring a threatened withdrawal as soon as this week and others advocating for a more measured approach to reopening negotiations with Canada and Mexico. Elsewhere in FX, a surprise move by Sweden to expand its stimulus program pushed the crown down sharply.
The focus now turns to the ECB and what its head Mario Draghi and his colleagues have made of the recent improvement in euro zone economic data. The bank is not expected to make any changes to its record low interest rates or mass-stimulus program, so market reaction to this meeting may hinge on just a few crucial words (see our ECB preview here).
“We would expect the commentary to remain relatively upbeat on the growth outlook,†Mike Bell, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management said in a note. He expects the ECB to wait until January to begin withdrawing stimulus. “Despite the result of the first round of the French election soothing market fears of potential euro disintegration risk we still expect this week’s ECB meeting to be too early to signal any meaningful shift in policy.â€However, “it is possible that the ECB will remove the language stating that the risks (to the economy) “remain tilted to the downside,” Bell added.
Euro zone government bond yields nudged up along with the euro which dropped sharply below 1.0900 having been as high as $1.0950 this week after pro-EU centrist Emmanuel Macron topped the first round vote in France.
Investors are searching for fresh impetus after an underwhelming tax cut plan from U.S. President Donald Trump. The NAFTA statement emerged as a distraction for the currency market, while in the bond market, the next flashpoint will be the tone of the European Central Bank’s meeting Wednesday. Emmanuel Macron’s ascent in the French election blunted euro-skepticism, creating room for policy makers to chart out their stimulus exit plan.
China’s growth accelerated at the fastest pace since mid-2015 in the January-March quarter, while South Korea on Thursday also reported stronger than expected first-quarter growth, fueled by improving global demand.
Among commodities, industrial metals steadied though oil prices dipped again on concerns about globally bloated markets[O/R]. Brent futures dropped to $51.60 per barrel, down 22 cents, or 0.42 percent, from their last close. Brent is almost 9 percent below its April peak. The dollar, meanwhile, slipped to 111.23 yen from near a one-month high of 111.78 yen scored earlier on Wednesday.
