Written by John Lounsbury and Steven Hansen
The headlines say new home sales significantly declined and was well below market expectations.
Analyst Opinion of New Home Sales
This month the backward revisions were up and the rolling averages significantly declined. Because of weather and other factors, the rolling averages are the way to view this series – and the rolling averages were within the levels seen in 2017.
This data series is suffering from methodology issues which manifest as significant backward revision – and this month the revisions were up. Home sales move in spurts and jumps – so this is why we view this series using a three month rolling average.
Econintersect analysis:
- unadjusted sales growth decelerated 23.8 % month-over-month.
- unadjusted year-over-year sales down 1.8 % year-over-year. Year-over-year growth rate this month was significantly below the range of growth seen last 12 months.
- three month unadjusted trend rate of growth decelerated 6.4 % month-over-month – is up 10.9 % year-over-year.
US Census Headlines:
- seasonally adjusted sales down 11.4Â % month-over-month
- seasonally adjusted year-over-year sales up 0.5 %
- market expected (from Bloomberg) seasonally adjusted annualized sales of 585 K to 622 K (consensus 604 K) versus the actual at -569 K.
The quantity of new single family homes for sale remains well below historical levels.
Seasonally Adjusted New Homes for Sale
The headlines of the data release:
Sales of new single-family houses in April 2017 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 569,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 11.4 percent (±10.5 percent) below the revised March rate of 642,000, but is 0.5 percent (±11.3 percent)* above the April 2016 estimate of 566,000.
