USD/CAD Dives As Bank Of Canada Hikes Rates

More than a few commentators have noted how bizarre it is that the fate of the global DM hawkish lean hangs not on Janet Yellen’s testimony on Capitol Hill Wednesday, but rather with the Bank of Canada, which has launched a concerted effort to telegraph a rate hike over the past several weeks.

As Bloomberg’s Luke Kawa wrote on Tuesday, “a rapid repricing of monetary policy paths has markets seeing a Bank of Canada that’s moved rates nearly just as far away from zero as the Federal Reserve by this time next year.”

“The Bank’s abrupt shift in rhetoric didn’t rock longer-term rates globally, like European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s remarks did, but Canadian central bankers were at the leading edge of what would become a chorus of global central bankers singing a hawkish hymn at the ECB’s forum in Sintra, Portugal that’s changed the conversation from central bank divergence to convergence,” Kawa goes on to note.

“The concerted effort by BoC officials to influence market expectations is too vocal to be ignored,” Credit Suisse’s Alvise Marino wrote in a note this week, adding that “with almost three hikes priced in over the next 18 months, we think markets will need to see data validation to keep USD/CAD under pressure.”

Well, the moment is upon us as and the word from Stephen Poloz is indeed hike.

Here’s the USD/CAD reaction:

And some context: