EUR/CHF: What’s Going On With CHF? What’s The Trade? – BofAML

The euro is rising against the dollar but also against other peers. EUR/CHF is on the move and even getting close to the old floor line of 1.20.

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:

Bank of America Merrill Lynch FX Strategy Research notes that summer 2017 has so far been dominated by the sharp depreciation in the Swiss Franc.

“We would classify this as a “surprise” because the scale of the move over the past month has been unprecedented since the SNB abandoned the EUR/CHF peg in January 2015 and because it appears to have lacked an immediate catalyst. 

….Now that the regional political risk premium has abated, CHF is reverting to its traditional role of a counter-cyclical funding currency, which in our view should make long EUR/CHF a cleaner trade on policy divergence and relative valuation. However,the speed of the recent move gives us reason to expect consolidation ahead of 1.15 in EUR/CHF.

“Given we think the SNB will not deviate from its current strategy, this should limit any bounces in CHF and our bias would therefore be as buyers of EUR/CHF on dips for the time being,” BofAML advises.