The SPX equal-weight index is trading below the 10-week. It looks like a change in trend to me. It think it is safe to call it a medium-term top.
It is a little scary having a top in August after such a strong run higher, and with the weak month of September ahead.
The medium-term trend is now pointing lower, but the short-term trend is looking oversold.
We could get a short-covering, short-term counter-trend rally followed by some listless trading. But, I would expect any rally back up to the 20-day to be met by selling.
Also, I don’t expect these beautiful Cuppock Curve cycles to continue. The momentum indicators will start to look choppy.
Behind a bit of strength in the major indexes today, the majority of stocks continued to sell off as the bullish percents dropped lower.
Don’t get too negative towards stocks, yet. This index is still above the lows of early July, and the market will follow this index up or down.
The Leader List
Gold and Treasuries are strong, but aren’t yet leaders. Financials are weak and have been dropped from the leaders list.
Inflation remains very low and rates may not rise as expected, so Financials are feeling the pain. This is a a bearish outside week for Financials.
Outlook
The long-term outlook is positive.
The medium-term is down as of Aug-10. Looking for a low mid to late September.
The short-term trend is down as of July-28. Stocks are short-term oversold.
