The week splits to two parts: before the Dubai crisis and after it. The first part saw a falling dollar across the board with new records in some currencies. The second part saw a very sharp reverse move, that saw a reversal of its own today. Fear took over the markets on Thanksgiving. Does today’s stabilization mark a return to normal? Will the dollar continue to fall as usual? Let’s see how different currencies performed this week.
The US dollar index is at about 75, lower than last week’s close, but it was already in a much worse state, at 74.17 before the Dubai crisis. This strong move by the dollar after the Dubai crisis, is similar to the comeback of the greenback, at the same time last month. Let’s see the different currencies:
- EUR/USD: The Euro continued to trade in a frustrating range despite good figures, but the breakout finally came…only to be reversed by the crisis.  At 1.4960, the Euro makes a gain of about 100 pips.
- GBP/USD: The British Pound was hurt also by the Q3 GDP, that was confirmed at a fall of 0.3%. The crisis sent the Pound crosses off a cliff. After trading in an almost 500 pips range, GBP/USD is just under 1.65, like last week.
- USD/JPY: The Japanese Yen is another safe haven currency, like the dollar. In this crisis, the Yen broke the 87 line, triggering stop loss orders that sent USD/JPY below 85! Talks of intervention by senior Japanese figures helped the pair recover. Still, USD/JPY remains under 87, a weekly loss of over 200 pips. The Yen is the big winner of the week.
- USD/CHF: The Swissy enjoyed the fall of the dollar and went below parity, for the first time since April 2008. Also this achievement was erased by the desert winds from Dubai. 0.9916 that was recorded didn’t last, and the pair is closing on the other side, at 1.0068, a 100 pips loss. The Swissy overcame the crisis, at least for now.
- USD/CAD: The Russian central bank announced that transactions would also be made in Canadian dollars. This helped the loonie only temporarily. The Russian announcement took USD/CAD all the way to 1.0450, before the crisis, but the overall performance for the Canadian dollar is good: it gained 70 pips against the dollar, and closes under 1.07.
- AUD/USD: The popular carry trade of the Aussie was beaten by the crisis quite badly. A rate hike next week should help it recover. In a weekly look, the Aussie lost only 100 pips and is at 0.9060, but it was already at 0.9322 this week…
- NZD/USD: The kiwi was hit badly by the crisis, and was also hit by falling business confidence at home. At 0.7090, the pair loses over 150 pips, making it the big loser of the week.
That’s it for this week, which is a long Thanksgiving weekend for my American readers. Weekly  forecasts will be published towards the opening of the new week. Have a great weekend.
