On the eve of Election Day in the US, the Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton gains momentum. While markets initially reacted on Clinton Clearance by the FBI, other news of massive early voting by Hispanics is far more important.
That was early Sunday trading, and 24 hours later, the late opinion polls also swing to Clinton’s favor, in both swing states and national ones. Most of the polling was made before news broke regarding the FBI clearance. The last swing still leaves the picture open, but markets are pricing in a President Clinton much more than President Trump.
She is a narrow favorite to beat Donald Trump in Florida and North Carolina according to new data accumulated by FiveThirtyEight. While these remain tossups, the Latino vote in Florida makes a difference. Things could end early if she wins Florida.
Also, national polls have widened. RealClearPolitics have shown a race as tight as a 1.7% lead and now show 2.9%. This is within the margin of error and Trump can also win the electoral college without winning the popular vote. However, the momentum also helps.
The US dollar is the big winner, especially against the safe-haven yen. In the less-traded currencies, the Mexican peso also had a superb day. Clinton would maintain the NAFTA agreement her husband signed while Trump would probably sever relations with other countries.
More:
- How to trade the US elections with currencies
- US elections: updates on 21 brokersÂ
- US elections and forex – all the updates in one place
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