We have a normal data calendar. Central to stock market prospects is the resolution of several key policy issues. The possible outcomes have a wide range of market impacts, from fear to a major boost in corporate earnings. The debt limit/Harvey aid deal between President Trump and Democrats was a surprise to most. Still digesting the implications, the punditry will be wondering:
Have the odds improved for a market-friendly policy agenda?
Last Week Recap
My expectation that of a focus on what might go wrong was partly correct. Then the hurricane news and political reactions became the lead stories. There was little market-moving data.
The Story in One Chart
I always start my personal review of the week by looking at this great chart from Doug Short via Jill Mislinski. The most notable feature is the narrow range. The supposed “delayed reaction†to the N. Korean H-bomb story was responsible for the Tuesday dip.
Doug has a special knack for pulling together all the relevant information. His charts save more than a thousand words! Read the entire post for several more charts providing long-term perspective, including the size and frequency of drawdowns.
The Silver Bullet
As I indicated recently I am moving the Silver Bullet award to a standalone feature, rather than an item in WTWA. I hope that readers and past winners, listed here, will help me in giving special recognition to those who help to keep data honest. As always, nominations are welcome!
The News
Each week I break down events into good and bad. For our purposes, “good†has two components. The news must be market friendly and better than expectations. I avoid using my personal preferences in evaluating news – and you should, too.
There was little economic news, but it was generally positive. The negatives were not very significant.
The Good
- Wholesale inventories increased 0.6%Â more than the expected gain of 0.4%. This is a positive for GDP, assuming that inventory restocking is needed.
- China economic growth looks better, if one believes in Dr. Copper.
- Non-farm productivity increased 1.5% compared to 0.9% last month.
- Debt ceiling deal avoids a government shutdown, so it is basically market-friendly. The full story is more complicated.
- ISM non-manufacturing recorded 55.3, up from 53.9 in July, and in line with most expectations. (Bespoke)
- Job gains better than thought. The preliminary benchmark revision shows that the net job gains for the year ending in March was 95,000 more than expected. This report is important as a check on the aggressive spinning done on every “employment Friday.†(BLS)
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Overall global growth continues. Dr. Ed Yardeni has a good analysis with some interesting charts and explanations. Here is a key quote and a chart example.
The global economy is running on all six cylinders. It may not be a global synchronized boom, but it is the most synchronized expansion of economic activity that the global economy has had since the recovery from the 2008/2009 recession.
The Bad
- Harvey could imply more mortgage delinquencies. There could be as many as 300K new delinquencies and 160K more that are past due. (Calculated Risk)
- Factory orders declined 3.3% versus last month’s gain of 3.0%. A decline of 3.2% was expected.
- Jobless claims spiked. This was the expected Harvey effect. Jill Mislinski’s chart shows the effect clearly.
The Ugly
Irma. Not just another hurricane. The entire state of Florida in the path. Modern modeling and forecasting has helped in evacuating seven million people. One way of measuring the magnitude is the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), the total wind energy of the tropical system. USA Today has these amazing comparisons:
