Messages coming out from the Federal Reserve can sure be confusing.
The team at Credit Agricole puts the USD focus somewhere else:
Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:
he US the week ahead is littered with tier one data releases – August payrolls being the most important. In our view data (not Fed speeches) will be the key driver for USD ahead of the final three final Fed meetings of the year.
Notably, markets have effectively priced out a Sept rate hike following Dudley’s recent speech yet data argues that a rate hike is likely nearing (with Sept not entirely off the table).
The second revision of Q2 GDP showed solid broad-based revisions to key sectors while also suggesting that Q3 growth momentum looks strong.
We also look for another solid payrolls print, with the 3mma running at 235k. Other things to watch for are the unemployment rate and wage growth. At 5.3% the unemployment rate is within spitting distance of NAIRU – near 5.0%. AHE growth has stalled recently but we also note a glance at aggregate wage indicators suggests wage growth has risen.
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