The Federal Reserve already laid heavy hints about raising rates in December and made it clear that not much is needed in terms of additional employment improvement. Adding the focus on the US elections, only a huge surprise will change the picture. A big miss means a vicious cycle of a lower chance for a hike and a higher chance for a Trump victory. A big beat means a virtuous cycle of higher chances for Clinton and for a hike. Otherwise, it’s back to obsessing about the polls.
Video preview of the Non-Farm Payrolls report for October 4th 2016:
