Election day is today and everything is ready. Here is our full guide, video guide, and all the updates. And here is the view from SocGen:
Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:
(1) Base case: Clinton wins the Presidency, but with split government as the GOP keeps the House. The
What does seem clear from today’s very positive reaction to a slender poll lead for Mrs Clinton, is that the market has been very nervous indeed in recent days. Trump is risk-off, Clinton is risk-on and markets will move whatever the result or more particularly, whatever the results in Florida and North Carolina.
Another consensus view (and one which I share) is that the Yuan has further to fall. Scepticism about the recent stronger data and concern about its reliance on excessive debtfinancing is a common theme but more than that, as long as the Chinese authorities can engineer a weaker currency, they will. Personally, I’m not sure that shorting CNH would ever be a favourite trade, but I’m left wanting to sell a post-election NZD and AUD rally, wanting to sell SGD, KRW and JPY under almost any circumstances.
My own favourite non-FX trade is to sell gilts regardless, my favourite FX trades are to be long the Euro on Trump, short the Yen on Clinton, and since Clinton’s ahead, long USD/JPY is my best guess.
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