The horrific bombing in the Manchester Arena found GBP/USD already under 1.30. What’s next? Here are two opinions about the next moves in cable.
Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:
GBP/USD: Needs A Fresh Catalyst To Stay Above 1.30 – Barclays
Barclays Capital FX Strategy Research notes that GBP/USD has been pushed above the psychological 1.30 level on higher-than-expected retail sales last week combined with USD weakness.
“Although GBP remains on an appreciating trend, with market positioning and valuation providing a boost, the further near-term upside will likely require a catalyst, in our view. Barring further unexpected negative political headlines from the US, we do not think this week will provide such catalyst and expect the Cable to range-trade,†Barclays argues.
Data wise, Barclays notes the calendar is quiet this week and expects Q1 17 GDP (Thursday) to be confirmed at 0.3% q/q.
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GBP: The Peak Is Near; Where To Target? – NAB
NAB FX Strategy Research’s forecast profile for GBP has a peak of 1.31 in this second quarter, with a steady decline over the next 18 months reflecting the harsh realities of the Brexit negotiations.
“For us, there are significant execution risks on Brexit and the BoE has admitted that is has done no scenario planning in case a favorable outcome fails to materialize. This may be politically astute but leaves it open to the charge of presenting an unrealistically rosy scenario. As for wages, its forecast of a pick-up as the UK economy approaches full employment has not thus far proved correct. We see little to suggest that this time it will be different,†NAB argues.
“To sum up, we believe that the turning point for the British Pound may not be far away,†NAB concludes.
NAB targets GBP/USD at 1.31 in Q2, 1.29 in Q3, and 1.27 in Q4 of 2017.
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