When the latest reading on the Case-Shiller 20-City Composite printed within 1% of its record highs from 2006 a little more than a week ago, we asked a question that’s seemingly on every real-estate investors’ mind: Is this a “top” or a “breakout”?
And with the effects of the Trump tax reform plan – which is expected to hammer real-estate markets, particularly in high-tax blue – having yet to take effect, already states – one early indicator that softness might be entering one of the country’s most iconic (and expensive) real estate markets was reported by Bloomberg today. To wit, the trend of landlords handing out rental concessions continued to intensify in January, as landlords are increasingly being pressured to hand out incentives like rent-free months or gift cards to entice potential renters to sign on the dotted line. Concessions jumped to a record in January, with 49% of newly signed leases coming with some kind of incentive, according to appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate.
That share surpasses the previous peak of 36% set just a month earlier.
All of these concessions have caused the median rent to drop 3.6% from a year earlier to $3,141Â – the biggest decline since October 2011 – interrupting six years of near-constant growth.
“Landlords have finally realized, ‘OK, we have to adjust these prices because the concessions aren’t doing as much,'” said Hal Gavzie, who oversees leasing for Douglas Elliman. “Customers are looking past the concessions being offered and just looking for the best deals they can find.”
Rents fell last month in almost every Manhattan neighborhood, including some of the borough’s priciest, Citi Habitats said in its own report. On the Upper West Side, the median was $3,450, down 2.8 percent from a year earlier. Rents in the West Village dropped 4.5 percent to $3,700, while on the Upper East Side, they declined 5.3 percent to $3,185, the brokerage said.
“The dynamic has shifted,†with Brooklyn, Queens and the New Jersey waterfront becoming viable options to many renters,” said Gary Malin, president of Citi Habitats. “Tenants are looking for value, and they’re open to suggestions.”
