Politics Threatens The Fed

“Yet there is also good reason to worry,” wrote the Economist on a page 10 editorial dated February 3, 2018. We agree.

They made the case with this summary: “An independent central bank can be better trusted to act swiftly to curb inflation. That trust also gives it freedom to cut interest rates when the economy turns down. The kinds of problems set by a booming world economy and elevated asset prices are best tackled by experts at some distance from politics. What central banks need is not the appointment of officials who are less inclined to disappoint their political masters.”

Could the turmoil in the US central bank’s composition and its interface with politics be one of the hidden ingredients that exacerbate market turmoil and worsen violent volatility? The answer may be yes.

Consider the evidence.

Our Federal Reserve functions without a full Board of Governors because of politics. The new chairman, Jay Powell, has two colleagues seated on a seven-member board. A third nominee is now in political trouble because a Senator doesn’t like his views. The nomination of Marvin Goodfriend squeaked through the Senate committee on a partisan 13 to 12 vote. We shall see if he is confirmed or if he falls to the wayside. Three other vacancies on the board await nominations by President Trump. So right now the five voting presidents outnumber the three voting governors, and that is likely to be the situation for months. Some might argue that ratio is a good thing, as regional bank presidents are selected by their banks and are not subject to Senate confirmation of presidential appointments.

Please note that this situation is not unique to Trump. It started under Bush and continued under Obama. Even in the midst of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, the Fed’s Board of Governors chaired by Bernanke had two vacancies. In those days the Board had a requirement for a supermajority five votes to rule on an emergency action. So Bernanke had to live under a unanimity rule imposed by a US Senate that was unwilling to confirm appointees.