All eyes will turn to brand new Fed Chair (and guy who is regretting it already) Jerome Powell on Tuesday as he heads to Capitol Hill to regale lawmakers with some s**t they won’t understand.
Markets will parse Powell’s testimony relentlessly for clues about the outlook for the economy, inflation and ultimately, for any hint that the committee is leaning towards four hikes in 2018.
Overnight, everyone was in a holding pattern ahead of Powell’s comments.
To be sure, this could be a complete non-event. But then again, no one really knows how “successful†ol’ Jay is going to be on the communications/forward guidance front.
Becoming a master of obfuscation and double-speak isn’t something one does overnight and as we’ve spent the last week reminding you, the circumstances here are unique (e.g. questionably-timed fiscal stimulus and the balance sheet rundown).
For those interested, below are some excerpts from some of the analyst color on this.
UBS:
Our economics team expects him to project confidence that inflation will rise, that activity will accelerate, and that the FOMC will gradually raise rates, while possibly mentioning the importance of longer-run fiscal sustainability.
Credit Suisse:
