EUR/USD is trading quietly in Wednesday trading. The pair is slightly above the 1.35 level in the European session. The US government shut down is in its second day, as Republicans and Democrats squabble over how to end the budget crisis. In economic news, Spanish Unemployment Change hit a seven-month high. The ECB will announce the new interest rate followed by a press conference with Mario Draghi. Over in the US, the ISM Manufacturing PMI looked solid on Tuesday, beating the estimate. Wednesday’s key event is the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. The markets are expecting very little change from the September release. We’ll also hear from Federal Reserve Chair Bernard Bernanke, who will speak in St. Louis.
Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.
EUR/USD Technical
- In the Asian session, EUR/USD dropped to a low of 1.3507 before edging upwards. The pair is steady in the European session.
- Current range: 1.35 to 1.3570.
Further levels in both directions:Â 
- Below: 1.3500, 1.3460, 1.3415, 1.3325, 1.3240, 1.3175, 1.31, 1.3050 and 1.3000.
- Above: 1.3570, 1.3650, 1.3710, 1.3800, 1.3870 and 1.3940.
- The round number of 1.35 is support weak support.
- 1.3570 is the next line of resistance. 1.3650 is stronger.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
- 7:00 Spanish Unemployment Change. Exp. 12.3K, Actual 25.6K.
- Tentative – German 10-year Bond Auction.
- 11:45 ECB Minimum Bid Rate. Exp. 0.50%.
- 12:15 US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. Exp. 177K.
- 12:30 ECB Press Conference.
- 14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Exp. 2.4M.
- 16:00 US FOMC Member Eric Rosengren Speaks.
- 19:30 US Federal Reserve Chairman Bernard Bernanke Speaks.
* All times are GMT.
For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.
EUR/USD Sentiment
- US Government Shutdown Continues: With Congress locked in a partisan battle over the budget, the shutdown of the US government continues. With the government lacking funds to operate, it has been forced to close non-essential services and send almost a million government workers home. The Republicans and Democrats are entrenched in their positions, but public resentment may force the politicians to get their act together quickly.  The economic damage is not expected to be significant, provided that the shutdown does not last more than a few days. However, this crisis will pale in comparison to that of the debt ceiling, which must be resolved by October 17. If no agreement is reached on raising the debt ceiling by that time, the US could default on bond payments. A default, even a “technical†one, could shake the entire financial world.
- Spanish, German unemployment numbers up: Spanish Unemployment Change looked weak in September, jumping to 25.6 thousand, compared to 0.0 thousand the month before. This was well above the estimate of 12.3 thousand. This follows a dismal German Unemployment Change which shot up to its highest level in over four years, rising from 7 thousand to 25 thousand. This surprised the markets, which had anticipated a decline of -7 thousand. There was some good news on the employment front, as the Eurozone Unemployment Rate dropped from 12.1% to 12.0% in September, a five-month low. Even though the Eurozone appears to have exited the recession, high unemployment continues to weigh on the recovery and job creation remains weak.
- Italian government faces vote of confidence: The Berlusconi saga, which seems to never end, flared up again on the weekend, as ex-PM Silvio Berlusconi pulled out of the coalition government led by Enrico Letta. The flamboyant Berlosconi urged Letta to dissolve parliament and call new elections, but Letta has opted to seek a vote of confidence on Wednesday, hoping to keep his battered coalition together. Italian politics are often full of surprises and twists, and we could be in for quite a show this week.
- QE October taper seems less likely: Apart from the NFP, the market prices the chances of a reduction in bond buys in October according to the Fed’s sentiment. FOMC member James Bullard told us that the decision not to taper QE in September was a close call, and that tapering in October is certainly possible. However, consequent FOMC speakers poured some cold water over this option. We’ll hear from Rosengren and Bernanke later on Wednesday, and analysts will be looking for clues about QE tapering. Employment numbers are critical regarding QE tapering, but Friday’s Non-Farm Employment Change will be cancelled should the US government shutdown continue.
A recent technical analysis: EURUSD Could Move Above 1.3600 – Elliott Wave Forecast
