EUR/USD has edged lower as we start the new trading week. The pair is trading in the low-1.35 range in Monday’s European session. It’s a quiet start to the week, with just one release out of the US, Pending Homes Sales. The markets are expecting a gain after four consecutive declines from the key housing indicator. There are no releases out of the Eurozone on Monday.
Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.
EUR/USD Technical
- In the Asian session, EUR/USD edged lower, consolidating at 1.3540. The pair has posted slight losses in the European session.
- Current range: 1.3440 to 1.3500.
Further levels in both directions:Â Â 
- Below: 1.35, 1.3440, 1.34, 1.3320, 1.3240, 1.3175, 1.31, 1.3050, 1.3000 and 1.2940.
- Above: 1.3570, 1.3650, 1.3710, 1.3800 and 1.3870.
- 1.3570 is the next resistance line. 1.3650 follows.
- 1.3500 is providing weak support. This is followed by 1.3440.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
- 15:00 US Pending Home Sales. Exp. 2.2%.
*All times are GMT
For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.
EUR/USD Sentiment
- Unemployment claims improve: There was good news on the employment front on Thursday, as Unemployment Claims dropped to 323 thousand, a seven-week low. This was well below the estimate of 333 thousand. The strong figure will likely increase speculation about when the Fed will step in and taper QE, although such a dramatic move is not considered likely before early 2014.
- Fed minutes point to QE: Speculation that the Fed is getting ready to press the taper trigger increased following the release of the Federal Reserve minutes last week. In the minutes, policymakers said the current QE level of $85 billion monthly purchases of bonds could taper “in coming months†if the economy continued to improve. The dollar was up sharply after the minutes were released. Earlier in the week, Fed chair Bernard Bernanke said that the employment market improvement was “meaningful†and that interest rates would likely remain low even after QE ends.
- Negative rates for ECB?: With inflation remaining very weak despite recent rate cuts, the ECB is considering cutting the deposit rate, which currently stands at 0.0%. However, a move into negative territory would represent unchartered territory and could have negative consequences for the economy. So if the ECB does go ahead and reduce to deposit rate, we could see a “mini cut†of less than 0.25%. The OECD is also expressing concern about the dangers of deflation in the Eurozone and is urging the ECB to consider implementing quantitative easing. QE, a non-conventional monetary policy tool, is an important component in the monetary policy of central banks such as the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.
- German Business Confidence Higher: German data continues to look good, and Ifo Business Climate wrapped up the week on a high note. The indicator jumped to 109.3 points, up from 107.4 a month earlier. Earlier in the week, German PMIs pointed to continuing expansion in the services and manufacturing sectors. However, other members in the Eurozone are lagging behind Germany, and record low interest rates have not boosted inflation or economic growth in the region.
