EUR/USD January 23 – Sharp Gains After Strong PMIs

EUR/USD has broken out of a lackluster week on Thursday, as the pair has climbed about 100 points. Early in the European session, the pair is trading in the mid-1.36 range. In economic news, Eurozone PMIs were mostly higher, giving the euro a strong boost. Spanish Employment showed no movement, coming in at 26.0%. We’ll get a look at the first US events of the week, with the release of Unemployment Claims and Existing Home Sales. The World Economic Forum continues on Thursday in Davos, Switzerland.

Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.

EUR/USD Technical

• EUR/USD was very steady for most of the Asian session, trading around 1.3540. The pair shot higher at the end of the session and into the European session, and is trading in the mid-1.36 range.

Current range: 1.3550 to 1.3615.

Further levels in both directions:  

• Below: 1.3615, 1.3550, 1.3450, 1.34, 1.3320, 1.3240 and 1.3175.
• Above: 1.3675, 1.3710, 1.3800, 1.3832, 1.3940 and 1.4036.
• 1.3615 is providing weak support.
• 1.3675 is a weak resistance line. 1.3710 follows.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

• 8:00 French Flash Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 47.6, actual 48.8 points.
• 8:00 French Flash Services PMI. Exp. 48.2, actual 48.6 points.
• 8:00 Spanish Unemployment Rate. Exp. 26%, actual 26.0%.
• 8:30 German Flash Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 54.7, actual 56.3 points.
• 8:30 German Flash Services PMI. Exp. 54.1, actual 53.6 points.
• 9:00 Eurozone Current Account. Exp. 19.2B, actual 23.5B.
• 9:00 Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 53.2, actual 53.9 points.
• 9:00 Eurozone Flash Services PMI. Exp. 51.5, actual 51.9 points.
• Day 2 – WEF Annual Meetings.
• 13:30 US Unemployment Claims. Exp. 331K.
• 14:00 US Flash Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 55.2.
• 14:00 US HPI. Exp. 0.4%.
• 15:00 US Existing Home Sales. Exp. 4.94M. See how to trade this event with USD/JPY.
• 15:00 US CB Leading Index. Exp. 0.2%.
• 15:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Exp. -112B.
• 16:00 US Crude Oil Inventories. Exp. 0.7M.

*All times are GMT

For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.

EUR/USD Sentiment

• Euro jumps on solid PMIs: Eurozone PMIs looked solid on Thursday, giving a big boost to the euro. French Service and Manufacturing PMIs beat the estimates, although both remain in contraction stage. German Manufacturing PMI posted a gain in December, but the Services PMI dipped lower, missing the estimate. Eurozone Services and Manufacturing PMIs both beat the estimates. These readings are welcome news, as recent Eurozone releases have not looked impressive.
• Spanish Unemployment Rate remains high: Spain has reeled off some strong numbers recently, but it was more of the same from the Unemployment Rate, which was unchanged in Q4 at 26.0%. This marks the sixth straight quarter that the unemployment rate has been above 25%.The economy is slowing slight growth, but unemployment is expected to remain at these very high levels.
• Davos hosts world leaders: The World Economic Forum kicked off Wednesday in Davos, Switzerland. The prestigious event will see senior political officials, head of foreign banks and business people from dozens of countries meet and mingle. The currency markets can be affected by statements issued at the forum, particularly by central bankers or other senior officials.
• German Consumer Sentiment misses mark: German ZEW Consumer Sentiment didn’t show much change in December, coming in at 61.7 points, compared to 62.0 points a month earlier. However, the key indicator fell well short of the estimate of 63.4 points. The all-European release surprised with a sharp rise, climbing to 73.3 points, up from 68.3 a month earlier. This easily beat the estimate of 70.2 points. The euro responded with a slight drop against the dollar.
• Deflation Concerns Continue in Europe: Eurozone indicators continue to point to weak inflation, and this was underscored on Monday, as German PPI posted another weak reading, posting a gain of just 0.1%. While the ECB seems concerned with low inflation and not outright deflation, any further deterioration could push the ECB to set a negative deposit rate as soon as March 2014. This is a primary source of euro vulnerability.
• US consumer still buying: US retail sales numbers painted a mixed picture. Retail sales rose by only 0.2%, meeting forecasts. The up side came from core sales, which jumped by 0.7%, compared to 0.4% the month before. This easily beat the estimate of 0.4%. Also consumer confidence remains on high ground. December is a key month in US shopping, so January’s consumer spending numbers could taper off.

 

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