Markets were mixed last week after the ECB decision and the NFP report. We have seen a strong move up on stocks at the same time when the USD was gaining across the board. It’s untypical positive correlation so it seems that the USD can be moving higher because of a weaker commodity market. The Commodity index S&P GSCI lost around 2.5% since June 20.
If the USD index is heading higher then the EUR will remain under pressure. I am looking for a five wave fall now with wave (i) at the support zone, so some recovery in the short-term is expected. I will be looking for a new sell-off from around 1.3620/1.3640 but after a visible 3-leg rally.
EURUSD 1h Elliott Wave Analysis
