EUR/USD is trading at the lower end of the well known of the range as the week draws to an end. Risk is back in the picture with the miss of the payment in the Portuguese holdings company. The pair went lower also thanks to some hawkish sounds from the Fed, even though things are moving very slowly at that end. A light calendar today means that speculation will be in play.
 Here is a quick update on what’s moving the pair.
- EUR/USD moved slowly in the Asian session, remaining close to 1.36.
- Current range:Â 1.3610 to 1.3650.
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.3585, 1.3550, 1.35, 1.3450, and 1.34.
- Above: 1.3610, 1.3650, 1.3677, 1.37 and 1.3740.
- On the downside, the pair is testing 1.310. 1.3585 follows.
- 1.3650 is weak resistance. 1.3677 is next.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
- 6:00 German Final CPI. Exp. +0.3%, actual +0.3%.
- 6:00 German WPI. Exp. +0.2%, actual -0.1%.
- 6:00 USÂ Federal Budget Balance. Exp. +$80 billion.
*All times are GMT.
For more events and lines, see the EUR/USDEUR/USDEUR/USDEUR/USDEUR/USD.
EUR/USD Sentiment
- Worries from Portugal: A major shareholder of a Portuguese bank missed a bond payments. This was a stark reminder that the underlying problems in Europe are far from being resolved. Stock markets fell and the euro also felt the heat, albeit in a limited manner.
- Some more bullish dollar signs around the Fed: The Federal Reserve minutes did not shed much light on when the Fed plans to raise interest rates, but policymakers did agree to wind up the QE scheme by October. In addition, James Bullard had his “Carney moment†saying that rates could rise sooner than investors think. Together with an influential article in the WSJ, it seems that the Fed is getting closer to acknowledging the improvement in the US economy. We will hear next week from Janet Yellen.
- German trade surplus widens: There was finally some positive news out of Germany, after a rash of weak data from the Eurozone’s largest economy. Trade Balance improved last month, posting a surplus of EUR 18 billion, the highest reading since last October. The surplus in Germany’s trade balance keeps the euro bid.
- USÂ job numbers keep rolling:Â US employment numbers continue to improve. On Tuesday, JOLTS Job Openings jumped to 4.64 million, easily beating the estimate of 4.53 million. This follows excellent figures from Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate. The jobless claims also dropped to 304K, at the bottom of the range.
More:Â How to Trade Tops and Bottoms
