GDP, GDO, GDP+:(Click on image to enlarge)
Figure 1: GDP (blue), GDO (tan), GDP+ (green), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. GDP+ scaled to equal GDP at 2019Q4. Source: BEA, , author’s calculations.
Note that none of these series evidences two consecutive quarters of negative growth (GDP evidences one quarter).What about forward looking indicators? Nowcasts indicating continued growth are depicted . Consumption, which accounts for about 68% of GDP, nowcasted by the Atlanta Fed to grow 3% in Q4.(Click on image to enlarge)
Figure 2: Consumption (bold black), and nowcasted consumption (light blue), both in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BLS, Atlanta Fed (11/27), and author’s calculations.As I observed on , the consumer seems very resilient, in the aggregate.So, the recession has not appeared as of October’s data, and output seems to be growing into Q4. Consumption, which is a forward looking indicator in the permanent income hypothesis, also signals continued growth.More By This Author:The Ruble Under Pressure Six Measures Of Core Instantaneous Inflation Business Cycle Indicators For Biden’s Economy In October
Three Measures Of Output
