Global Macro and Markets
G7 Macro: FOMC minutes showed broad support for a careful approach to future rate cuts. The Conference Board’s confidence gauge rose 2.1 points to 111.7 this month. The figure was in line with the median estimate. November’s increase was mainly driven by more positive consumer assessments of the present situation, particularly the strong labour market. Today we get another data point that will impact the Fed’s thinking – the core personal consumer expenditure deflator. This favoured measure of inflation incorporates contributions from both the CPI report and the PPI report, and given the data we have had, it points to a 0.3% MoM outcome. We need the MoM rate to average 0.17% MoM over time to bring the annual rate down to 2%, so a 0.3% outcome is too hot for the Fed to be completely comfortable with the inflation story.
Australia: A mixed bag for Australian October, inflation, as the headline inflation rate remained at 2.1% for a second month (lower than expected) but the trimmed mean rate rose from 3.2% to 3.5%. All in all, there is nothing in this to shake our thoughts that the RBA will remain on the sidelines until next year.
What to look out for: Australia CPI, China industrial profits, Philippines budget balance
November 27th Australia: October CPIChina: October industrial profitsPhilippines: October budget balance PHPNovember 28thS Korea: November BoK base rateNovember 29thIndia: 3Q GDP, October fiscal deficitJapan: October jobless rate, retail sales, industrial production November Tokyo CPI, consumer confidence indexTaiwan: 3Q GDPChina: November composite and manufacturing PMI (November 30th)S Korea: November imports, exports, trade balance (December 1st)More By This Author:Rates Spark: Looking Down Still Polish Retail Sales Partially Bounced Back In October FX Daily: New Season – Trump Tariff Show
