(Click on image to enlarge)
Building as Fast as They CanI received an interesting response to my previous post “They’re building them as fast as they can. The operable phrase is ‘as they can’. Regulations. 2025 should be lit!“
Yes, they are building as fast as they can and that’s a problem.378,000 homes are started or completed. This represents a builder commitment that’s very hard to stop no matter what happens to buyer demand.
Supply of Homes(Click on image to enlarge)
The supply of homes for sale (not yet sold) is in a rarified atmosphere. The chart is a bit bogus because it counts vacant lots.Matters are much worse for builders as the lead chart shows.
True Supply
Mortgage rates are near 7.0 percent. To keep sales up, builders are doing mortgage rate buydowns and building smaller homes.Consumers pay for that in one of many ways: Reduced quality, smaller lots, fewer rooms, or less amenities.
Where Are the Buyers?October 7: Government Employment Rose by an Amazing 785,000 in September
BLS math is often peculiar. This month is a real doozie. Four charts.
November 3:
I did a deep dive into the latest jobs report this weekend. Here are some interesting numbers.
November 20:
Hard evidence from QCEW report suggests more negative revisions coming for BLS nonfarm payroll report.
My prior comparisons and advance calls suggest we see negative revisions in nonfarm payrolls from 2023 Q2 to 2024 Q2 of well over one million. My initial stab is about 1.2 million to the downside.
Builders can pretend to make things affordable, but smart consumers find themselves saying: This is all I get for $500,000?!The Fed predicts an immaculate soft landing, I don’t.More By This Author:New Home Sales Plunge 17.3 Percent, Largest Decline Since July 2013Rent Is Growing Faster Than Income In 82 Of Top 100 Metro Areas Trump’s Conflicting Economic Agenda And Goals Are Impossible
