The S&P 500 (Index: ) rebounded in the pre-Thanksgiving holiday week of trading. The index rose 1.7% from where it ended the previous week, closing at on Friday, 22 November 2024.The biggest driver of stock prices continues to be expectations for how the Federal Reserve will be setting interest rates in 2025. The CME Group’s continues to anticipate the Fed will reduce the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25% when its Federal Open Market Committee concludes a two day meeting on 18 December 2024. More significantly, the FedWatch tool’s projections for all of 2025 indicate just one more rate cut is expected, a quarter point reduction on 18 June (2025-Q2). The tool expects the Federal Funds Rate will bottom at a target range of 4.00-4.25%.Since that single rate cut now expected in 2025 would take place in 2025-Q2, that explains why investors are focusing on that distant future quarter as they set current day stock prices. The of the alternative futures chart shows the trajectory of the S&P 500 just below the bottom of the range that we would expect to most likely find it for when investors focus their forward looking attention on 2025-Q2.(Click on image to enlarge)Since the alternative futures are projected to dip below where the S&P 500 is currently positioned in the week ahead, we can argue the market regime that has been in place since 9 March 2023 is still holding. We’re still keeping an eye out for indications of a change in market regime.With the Thanksgiving Day holiday weekend coming up, we anticipate a slow flow of market moving news in the week ahead. Here are the past week’s market moving headlines: Monday, 18 November 2024
- Oil prices rise over 3% on Sverdrup outage, Ukraine war escalation
- US single-family housing starts slump; high mortgage rates remain a challenge
- US labor market still boosting inflation, San Francisco Fed economists say
- Fed hawks and doves: what US central bankers are saying
- China’s export tax bombshell rocks aluminium market
- Chinese exporters to hike prices, renegotiate contracts after tax rebate cuts, sources say
- BOJ sees progress in wage-driven inflation, keeps Dec rate hike on table
- BOJ to bid farewell to stimulus era, justify rate hikes in policy review
- ECB fears Trump tariff effect on growth more than on inflation
- ECB’s Nagel says Trump’s tariffs may have minor impact on inflation
- ECB’s Makhlouf: Premature to make decisions based on new U.S. administration
Tuesday, 19 November 2024
- Oil slips on Sverdrup field restart, geopolitical fears support
- Fed’s Schmid says it is uncertain how far interest rates can fall
- China’s new hobbies create a spending mirage
- ECB’s Panetta calls for lower rates, forward stance, guidance
- https://www.reuters.com/technology/bitcoin-breaches-94000-first-time-2024-11-20/
Wednesday, 20 November 2024
- Oil little changed as market weighs mixed drivers
- OPEC+ may stick with deep oil cuts for longer due to weak demand
- Fed to lower rates in Dec but slow pace in 2025 on inflation risks: Reuters poll
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Fed governors stake out competing views of inflation risk
- Fed’s Williams sees inflation cooling and interest rates falling further, Barron’s reports
- Fed’s Collins sees more rate cuts ahead for US central bank
- Fed’s Bowman says rate cuts are concerning
- Fed’s Bowman calls for cautious approach on interest rates
- China leaves lending benchmark LPRs unchanged, as expected
- Trump to unleash nearly 40% tariffs on China in early 2025, hitting growth: Reuters poll
- China overtakes Germany in industrial use of robots, says report
- ECB warns of ‘bubble’ in AI stocks as funds deplete cash buffers
- https://www.reuters.com/technology/bitcoin-breaches-94000-first-time-2024-11-20/
Thursday, 21 November 2024
- Oil up 2% after Russia-Ukraine missile exchange, outweighing US crude stock rises
- US natural gas drillers to lift 2025 output, reversing year of cuts
- US existing home sales rebound in October
- US 30-year fixed-rate mortgage approaches 7%
- Fed’s Barkin says US is vulnerable to inflation shocks, FT reports
- Fed’s Goolsbee says pace of rate cuts may need to slow
- Exclusive: China advisers call for steady 5% 2025 economic growth goal, stronger stimulus
- ECB warns of ‘sizeable’ hit to growth from a trade war
- Trump and Europe: ECB policymakers say EU must complete shelved projects to tackle threat
- Dow ends up 1%, S&P gains with Nvidia sloughing off loss; Nasdaq tips into the green
- Bitcoin marches towards $100,000 on optimism over Trump crypto plans
Friday, 22 November 2024
- Oil prices settle up 1% at 2-week high as Ukraine war intensifies
- US existing home sales rebound in October
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China says it is willing to talk with US to push forward bilateral trade
- China announces policy measures to boost trade amid worries over Trump tariffs
- BOJ to hike rates in Dec as yen weakens and Trump returns, majority of analysts say: Reuters poll
- Japan’s inflation holds above BOJ target, fanning Dec rate hike bets
- Japan’s factory activity extends declines on sluggish demand, PMI shows
- More ECB cuts are coming but Dec discussion must wait, Nagel says
- Vulnerable Germany heaps pressure on ECB
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Wall Street closes higher after business activity data
- US business activity gauge rises to 31-month high in November
The ‘s projection of the real GDP growth rate for the current quarter of 2024-Q3 ticked up to +2.6% from the previous week’s +2.5%.On a programming note, we’re going to break away for our annual celebration of the Thanksgiving holiday this week. The next edition of ourMore By This Author:The Quiet S&P 500A First Look At Expected Quarterly Dividends For The S&P 500 Through 2025 Fall 2024 Snapshot Of Expected Future S&P 500 Earnings
