Image Source: Playbook for the Biotech Bull Run
Pick a basket of Large Cap biopharma stocks: ABBV, LLY, MRK, PFE, VRTX. (see updates on ABBV and BMY).
Buy a biotech fund (FBIOX) and the XBI.
Trade SMID biotech stocks with the XBI. More difficult and with increasing volatility.
If you have been reading our posts you know that some of the big biotech winners have taken a hit after earnings : LLY, MRK and . But ABBV, GILD, LLY, and VRTX remain among the top performers. Three of our top picks have sold off but are in a value buying range: LLY, MRK, PFE. We are still looking for PFE get some good news and trade above $30 with a dividend above 6%.What is surprising over the past quarter is the volatility among the large caps ABBV gapped up and gapped down on pivotal trading days over the past month. and continued a downward trend for many months. And Regeneron a top pick for many years took a big revenue and earnings hit from Eylea competition. remains stagnant as it restructures into a MEDTech and BIOpharma powerhouse while it extricates itself from its endless talc litigation. What we also need to factor in at some time is the TRUMP administration healthcare polices.**BUT today to show the volatility of this once staid group ABBV was down 12.57% to the $174 level o acquired in the $8.7B Cerevel deal. a drug the recently received FDA approval.Another option is to buy a biotech fund like Fidelity Select Biotech Portfolio (FBIOX) that is weighted toward large caps: ABBV, GILD, LLY and is up 26% YTD.SMID CAPs- Life in the Fast Lane with Momentum StocksOur SMID cap trading list was developed early in 2024 and rests have been outstanding. Some of the recent performance was weeks. Today there were several big winners: , , , , RZLT, , etc. But in light of recent big moves and volatility we would suggest a more measured approach to trading these SMID caps.LARGE CAP BIOPHARMAs MetricsData as of FRIDAY NOV 10, 2024.
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1/15/18 |
3/31/23 |
11/1/19 |
10/8/2023 |
2024 |
YTD |
|
FWD |
Analyst |
% |
1 yr % |
% |
|
| Company |
Ticker |
Price |
Price |
Price |
Price |
PRICE |
|
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|
|
|
|
1 mo. |
|
| |
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11/10/24 |
% Perf |
P/S |
PE |
Recom |
Div |
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| Abbvie** |
ABBV |
100.000 |
159.37 |
81.75 |
148.23 |
199.5 |
28.73 |
6.32 |
16.46 |
1.78 |
3.09 |
40.46 |
3.36 |
gap u |
| Alexion(ALXN) |
ALXN |
123.000 |
182.5 |
109.38 |
– |
40.33 |
n/a |
4.56 |
9.38 |
n/a |
|
AZN |
|
|
| Amgen |
AMGN |
185.000 |
241.75 |
221 |
263 |
325.28 |
12.94 |
5.47 |
15.68 |
2.2 |
2.8 |
19.04 |
2.39 |
|
| AstraZeneca* |
AZN |
35.000 |
69.41 |
40.34 |
67.42 |
64.5 |
-4.25 |
4.07 |
13.76 |
1.93 |
2.41 |
1.51 |
-16.11 |
gap d |
| Biogen |
BIIB |
336.000 |
278.31 |
299.2 |
263.25 |
173.04 |
-33.13 |
2.72 |
10.22 |
1.75 |
– |
25.32) |
-5 |
low |
| Bristol Myers* |
BMY |
63.000 |
69.31 |
57.16 |
56.66 |
54.14 |
5.52 |
2.29 |
7.68 |
2.85 |
4.42 |
3.28 |
3.16 |
|
| Celgene* (BMY) |
CELG |
106.000 |
n/a |
108.53 |
– |
77 |
n/a |
4.69 |
8.7 |
n/a |
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| |
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| Gilead Sci |
GILD |
79.000 |
82.97 |
61.69 |
74.74 |
96.57 |
19.2 |
4.19 |
12.96 |
2.09 |
3.18 |
23.96 |
13.33 |
high |
| GlaxoSmithK* |
GSK |
38.000 |
35.58 |
45 |
36.65 |
36.29 |
-2.08 |
1.86 |
8.28 |
2.5 |
4.3 |
3.51 |
-4.55 |
low |
| Johnson&J* |
JNJ |
new |
|
|
|
155.47 |
-0.81 |
4.23 |
14.69 |
2.18 |
3.01 |
3.41 |
-2.64 |
|
| Eli Lilly |
LLY |
85.000 |
343.42 |
113 |
565.22 |
831.54 |
42.65 |
20.14 |
36.76 |
1.62 |
0.66 |
34.31 |
-8.99 |
rsi low |
| Merck |
MRK |
59.000 |
106.39 |
78 |
103.88 |
102.92 |
-5.6 |
4.21 |
10.94 |
1.58 |
3.05 |
-1.42 |
-5.16 |
low |
| Pfizer |
PFE |
|
40.8 |
|
33.13 |
26.72 |
-7.19 |
2.45 |
9.21 |
2.23 |
6.31 |
-13.3 |
-8.43 |
rsi low |
| Regeneron |
REGN |
367.000 |
821.67 |
310.48 |
836.57 |
828.42 |
-5.68 |
6.61 |
18.32 |
1.82 |
– |
-0.68 |
6.13 |
low |
| Vertex |
VRTX |
158.000 |
315.07 |
196 |
360.62 |
516.74 |
27 |
12.89 |
27.46 |
1.97 |
– |
37 |
12.59 |
high |
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3/31 |
11/19 |
10/7/23 |
11/10/24 |
|
%YTD
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|
|
|
1 yr |
1 mo. |
Trend |
| XBI |
|
|
76.21 |
93 |
72.23 |
104.18 |
|
16.68 |
|
|
|
50 |
7.29 |
u |
| IBB |
|
|
129.16 |
119.65 |
122.48 |
148.85 |
|
9.57 |
|
|
|
25.63 |
4.09 |
u |
| FBIOX |
|
|
15.63 |
20.26 |
15.47 |
22.47 |
|
26 |
|
|
|
50.2 |
6.59 |
u |
| PRHSX |
|
|
87.75 |
79 |
86.37 |
99.55 |
|
13.25 |
|
|
|
17.26 |
0.83 |
u |
| XLV |
|
|
129.46 |
121.11 |
128 |
150.18 |
|
10.12 |
|
|
|
17.1 |
-1.06 |
– |
| XPH |
|
|
41.01 |
39.47 |
39.05 |
48.05 |
|
15.45 |
|
|
|
31.14 |
9.35 |
u |
| UNH |
|
|
472.59 |
252 |
524.81 |
615.81 |
|
16.97 |
|
|
|
14.73 |
5.89 |
u |
| QQQ |
|
|
320.93 |
201.23 |
364.7 |
514.14 |
|
25.55 |
|
|
|
37.86 |
5.08 |
u |
More By This Author:Smaller Cap Biotechs Are In Season: How Are We Doing? Volatility Hits Large Cap Biopharma: Active Rebalancing May Be RequiredBiotech Momentum Trades For The Q4 Rally
