EUR/USD opens the new trading week very close to the lowest points seen in recent times – the lowest levels since November 2013. A very busy calendar of events awaits along the road, but today’s one is rather light – the calm before the storm.
 Here is a quick update on what’s moving the pair.
- EUR/USD started the week just above 1.3420 without any extreme movement.
- Current range:Â 1.3450 to 1.3500.
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.3450, 1.34, 1.3375 and 1.33.
- Above: 1.35, 1.3550, 1.3585, 1.3610, 1.3650 and 1.3677.
- On the downside, 1.34 is critical support
- 1.3450 is immediate, weak resistance, before 1.35.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
- 13:45 US Markit Flash Services PMI. Exp. 62.3 points.
- 14:00 US Pending home sales. Exp. -0.2%.
*All times are GMT.
For more events and lines, see the EUR/USDEUR/USDEUR/USDEUR/USDEUR/USD.
EUR/USD Sentiment
- Initial Non-Farm Payrolls hint: Markit’s PMIS in the US are gradually gaining traction. As this week’s NFP will not be preceded by the ISM numbers, Markit’s figure for the services sector and the employment component could guide the way. Weekly jobless claims dropped to an 8 year low at 284K. While this season is known for its volatility, the figure certainly had a positive impact on markets. Terrible new home sales had a smaller impact. We will get another hint for Q2 GDP from the release of durable goods orders.
- Markets gearing for an important week: A triplet of an FOMC decision, US GDP and the Non-Farm Payrolls. Volatility is already on the rise, and is set to further advance next week. The action in the euro-zone becomes serious on Wednesday as well, with the release of German inflation data.
- Geo-politics is not going anywhere: The tensions about the downing of MH17 are rising, as the EU prepares tough sanctions against Russia. These could be met with counter-sanctions and weigh on the EZ recovery. The war in Gaza intensifies with more casualties on both sides and little hope of an immediate ceasefire. Riots have also spread to the West Bank.
- Mixed German data: The weak business confidence data from IFO contradicts the upbeat purchasing managers’ indices coming from the euro-zone’s powerhouse. In general, it seems that Germany cannot carry the euro-zone on its own. And while France’s services sector is back into growth territory, there are still worries about Europe’s second largest economy.
More:Â EURUSD: Vulnerable, Targets Further Downside With Caution
