The explosion of AI – and the positioning of companies (and their shares) as a result, is still the key focus for impact on corporate moves this year. Next too.However, while I can look at the S&P and other Indexes near record highs as they beg to correct, the behavior is pretty impressive considering seasonals; a draining of some liquidity in the Banking system; but perhaps that’s why fund managers (some say) were selling many mega-techs well before recent runs.
The point for the moment is not the narrowness of this market; but how it held relatively together given the backdrop in geopolitics, domestic political chaos, and ongoing reticence of candidates to debate each other’s policies, versus a chorus of low-road mudslinging that has only deepened.Perhaps that’s why it’s tricky to characterize Trump’s controversial weekend Madison Square Garden rally; or the refusal to endorse candidates by leading media like the Los Angles Times and now The Washington Post (owned by Jeff Bezos). A number of Editorial writers resigned as a result of that; mostly as they castigate the papers for not support Harris more. On top of it you have such vitriol that one cannot help but ponder the overall ‘security’ environment.
Market X-ray: won’t scan too deeply this weekend, due to personal fatigue in the wake of a couple medical tests and realizing nothing really changed. So I’ll show it in graphics and we’ll see if next week comes closer to emulating most close-Election prequels, which usually have an erosion in Index prices.There’s another explosion(s) tonight; details scarce so far. Speaking military weekend; here we go early Saturday with Israel’s retaliatory attack on Iran.No time for a video this evening; and no more details on the war yet available.Israel struck back at Iran, delivering a threatened response for Tehran’s180-missile attack which further expanded hostilities that spiraled out of the war in Gaza; and related to Iran stocking Hezbollah with weapons too.Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu had vowed a serious punishing response to Iran’s ballistic-missile attack(s). The roughly 180 missiles launched by Iran in early October caused minor damage, but in some places penetrated Israel’s air defenses aside not destroying key assets, as far as we know.Washington has said Israel has the right to retaliate, but has urged refraining from attacking Iran’s nuclear and oil facilities, believing that’s what could spark a regional war and raise Oil prices. Clearly I’ll update over the weekend if any insight beyond what mainstream media will report becomes somehow known.
The new week brings our AMD ‘and’ Nvidia Q3 reports. Probably both will be acceptable; although if NVDA reports any slippage, a drop will be temporary. If anything impressed me this week, it might be GM crushing-it with sales.
Bottom-line: this is time to keep the S&P on a ‘short-leash’.. it’s not a puppy; but long in the tooth for rallies; and Elections are just over a week away. Not at all pleased with the mood out there, and when I noted my ‘private’ survey of a handful of gym members, I failed to include that a couple mentioned being .. I hate to say this.. well-armed for whatever happens thereafter.Personally I’d envisioned watching the coming Elections; hoping most results are is known before midnight, and also realizing it’s sort of never that straight-forward these days. And pondering whether the most important aspect will be the Congressional results, as opposed to who POTUS is. When I drove back from a medical test I passed by the Election Supervisor’s Office; and saw the long line of early voters … definitely wasn’t going to stop by; but surprised the extent of a late Friday afternoon line. Voters are agitated and interested.Before Elections we get ‘Halloween’. Which is spookier?
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