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EUR/USD fumbled on Monday, kicking off a new trading week with a downside push as price action waffled back into familiar 12-week lows just above the 1.0800 handle. Markets remain apprehensive on the future pace of rate cuts, specifically from the Federal Reserve (Fed), and Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) activity figures due later in the week will give investors a glimpse at the shape of the global economy in the coming weeks.European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde is slated to make several appearances this week. The ECB head’s key public outing will be on Wednesday when ECB President Lagarde will speak on Europe’s current financial challenges at the Atlantic Council in Washington DC.Global PMI figures are due for a rolling release on Thursday. Markets have high expectations for pan-EU PMI survey results, with median market forecasts calling for a slight uptick in October’s EU Services PMI to 51.6 from September’s 51.4.
EUR/USD price forecast
The EUR/USD pair continues to trade with a bearish bias, currently hovering around 1.0815 after a decisive break below both the 50-day EMA at 1.0990 and the 200-day EMA at 1.0902. The price action confirms that the bears remain firmly in control as the pair consolidates near its recent lows. The inability to regain ground above the 200-day EMA indicates that downside momentum is likely to persist. Immediate support rests at 1.0800, with further declines possibly targeting the 1.0700 region if bearish pressure intensifies.The MACD indicator further reinforces the bearish outlook, with both the MACD line and signal line in negative territory, and the histogram expanding to the downside. This signals increasing bearish momentum, which suggests that any attempts by the bulls to recover could face strong resistance. A sustained move above 1.0900 is required to shift the bias back to neutral, but without a clear bullish catalyst, the path of least resistance remains to the downside in the near term.
EUR/USD daily chart
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