Big Mac Nation And Recession Since 2022

In a recent paper,  have argued that the peak in GDP, properly measured, was in 2021Q4.Source: .
As noted in this , I cannot — despite my best efforts — replicate their results (wherein they claim the appropriate deflator for GDP is up 40% instead of BEA reported 21.1%, sine 2019Q1). However, if all we produced and consumed (by households, firms, the government, and foreigners) was Big Mac^TM‘s, then one could argue that we have been in recession since 2022 (but are just coming out in 2024Q2).(Click on image to enlarge)Figure 1: US GDP expressed in Big Macs (brown, left log scale), and in bn.Ch.2017$ (black, right log scale), both SAAR. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Big Mac prices interpolated linearly from semi-annual reported prices. Source: BEA 2024Q2 3rd release/annual update, Economist, NBER, and author’s calculations. Note that Antoni and St. Onge do not provide a spreadsheet of calculations to show how they obtained their 40% increase in deflator.More By This Author:Mid-October Reading On Business Cycle Indicators – NBER BCDC And AlternativesFed Inflation Credibility MeasuredWSJ October Survey: GDP On The Rise