The CEPR-EABCN is one arbiter of business cycle chronologies in the Euro Area. The latest announcement is from . What do more recent indicators suggest (a partial survey)?GDP and employment:(Click on image to enlarge)
Industrial production and the unemployment rate:(Click on image to enlarge)
With employment growing through Q1 and unemployment declining from 2023 onward, it’s hard to declare a recession in place — even taking into account the fact all these data will be revised over time.Nowcasts indicate near zero growth in Q3. First the Banca d’Italia/CEPR eurocoin is slightly positive as of , at 0.14% q/q (0.6% q/q AR).(Click on image to enlarge)
Source: .
Nowcasts from )) show near zero growth in Q3 and Q4 (as of 4 October).
Source: , accessed 10/7/2024.
Source: , accessed 10/7/2024.This nowcast indicates -0.4% and 0% q/q AR in Q3 and Q4 respectively.Visualization of several euro area macro indicators .More By This Author:Will Household Wealth Be A Tailwind To Consumption In 2024Q3? Employment Overall, And At Smaller Firms In Real Time, Does A Downturn In Household Survey Employment Better Presage A Recession Than One In The Establishment Survey?
Business Cycle Indicators For The Euro Area, As Of 10/4/2024
