Private nonfarm payroll employment surprises on the upside (big time): 223K vs 125K consensus (total NFP 254K vs. 147K consensus). Moreover, the previous two months’ data were revised a total of 46K. Here’s a graph of reported September and August release numbers, vs. Bloomberg consensus and my nowcast (reported ).(Click on image to enlarge)
Figure 1: Private NFP, September release (bold blue), August release (black), nowcast based on ADP (blue), +/- 1 std error band (gray), Bloomberg consensus (red +). Source: BLS, Bloomberg, author’s calculations.The implied level of September employment was well within the 68% (plus/minus 1 std error) band for the nowcast based on the ADP series. More By This Author:Nowcasting Private NFP Using ADP DataPrivate Nonfarm Payroll Employment Measures ComparedBusiness Cycle Indicators – August Monthly GDP
NFP Blowout
