Not as of August, incorporating latest capacity utilization and production data, I’m tempted to say no, even incorporating at face value the preliminary benchmark revision to employment.
Figure 1: Manufacturing production (blue, left scale), implied employment from preliminary benchmark (tan, left scale), aggregate hours (green, left scale), and real valued added (red), all in logs, 2021M07=0, and capacity utilization in manufacturing, in % (black, right scale). Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, , BEA via FRED, NBER.
Note that 2023Q4 value added was higher than in 2021Q4. Unfortunately, we don’t have data further than 2024Q1 (these data will be reported by on 9/27).The data in support of a slowdown in manufacturing comes from diffusion indices, such as the ISM manufacturing PMI.
Source: TradingEconomics.com. Blue is S&P, gray is ISM.More By This Author:Where Will Mortgage Rates Go?Steve Kamin: “The Fed Is (Nearly) The World’s Most Hawkish Central Bank”GDPNow At 3% For Q3
Is Manufacturing In Recession?
