EUR/USD started the new month after the summer vacations with yet another dip, following the downfall seen last week and that accelerated in the late hours. However, the pair managed to stabilize. In the euro-zone, we have more PMIs today and in the US we have the Labor Day holiday. The news from Ukraine continues to dominate
 Here is a quick update on what’s moving the pair.
- EUR/USD dropped a bit lower in the range before stabilizing.
- Current range: 1.31 to 1.3150.
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.31 1.3050, 1.30 and 1.2940.
- Above: 1.3150, 1.3175, 1.3220 and 1.3295.
- 1.3150 switches to resistance after the downfall on Friday.
- 1.3112 is the new low, but real support is at the round number of 1.31.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
- 6:00Â German Final GDP. Exp. =0.2%, exp. -0.2%.
- 7:15Â Spanish Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 53.4 points. Actual: 52.8 points.
- 7:45 Italian Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 51 points.
- 8:00 Euro-zone final manufacturing PMI. Exp. 50.8 points.
*All times are GMT.
For more events and lines, see the EUR/USDEUR/USDEUR/USDEUR/USDEUR/USD.
EUR/USD Sentiment
- Deterioration in Ukraine: The fighting in Eastern Ukraine continues, and the Russian involvement seems more evident as reports emerge about secret funerals for Russian soldiers. The EU has laid out an ultimatum to Russia to back down or face additional sanctions. The Russian rouble fell to a new low against the dollar. On the other hand, Russian president Vladimir Putin began talking about the “statehood†of Eastern Ukraine. Europe and especially Germany, is dependent on Russian gas. In addition, other trade connections are impacted by the sanctions.
- What will the ECB do?: Tensions is mounting towards the rate decision on Thursday. Will Draghi announce QE or just hint about an upcoming announcement? Will there be more cuts in the rock bottom interest rates? Expectations stand on more words but no new action.
- Reminder of strong US growth: The US surprised with announcing an annualized growth rate of 4% in the first read. This week, the focus is on jobs. First hints towards Friday’s NFP will come tomorrow, as the US returns from the holiday, with the manufacturing figure. See how to trade the ISM Manufacturing PMI with USDJPY..
- Jackson Hole fallout: Janet Yellen did her best not to rock the boat, and the lack of dovishness was dollar positive, following the trend seen after the not-too-dovish FOMC minutes. ECB president Mario Draghi certainly left the door open for more action, and QE certainly seem on the cards. He also asked governments to do more. This triggered last week’s Sunday gap which was never closed.
