The headline consumer price index was unchanged MoM – the smallest change since July 2022 – just less than the +0.1% MoM expected. On a YoY basis, headline CPI rose 3.3% (less than the 3.4% exp) – but very much stuck in a range well above the 2% target for over year now…Source: Bloomberg Energy was the biggest drag on the headline CPI MoM…Source: BloombergCore CPI rose 0.2% MoM (below the 0.3% exp) pulling the YoY change down to 3.4% (from 3.6% and below the 3.5% exp)…Source: BloombergThat is the lowest Core CPI YoY since April 2021.Core CPI has not had a down-month since President Biden was elected.Core Services inflation slowed notably MoM…Source: BloombergSuperCore CPI fell 0.05% MoM – its first drop since Sept 2021, but that left the YoY level still above 5.0%…Source: BloombergTransportation Services costs tumbled MoM to drag SuperCore lower MoM…Source: BloombergWe note that consumer prices have not fallen in a single month since President Biden’s term began (July 2022 and May 2024 was the closest with ‘unchanged’), which leaves overall prices up over 19.5% since Bidenomics was unleashed (compares with +8% during Trump’s term).And prices have never been more expensive…Source: BloombergThat is an average of 5.4% per annum (more than triple the 1.9% average per annum rise in price during President Trump’s term).Finally, while the ‘flations’ have broadly tracked M2 lower, we note that M2 YoY is now starting to turn back higher once again…Source: BloombergWill the next President and Fed head face a 70s redux?Source: BloombergAnd is this guaranteed if Powell decides “insurance” cuts are required (for Biden?)More By This Author:Stellar 10Y Auction Sees Surge In Foreign Demand, Near Record Stop ThroughTreasury Yields Jump To One-Week High After Ugly 3Y AuctionUS Domestic Bank Deposits Tumble As Money-Market Fund Assets Near Record-High Again
Consumer Prices Hold At Record Highs – Up 20% Since Biden Elected
