EUR/USD continues to trade in range, looking for a new direction ahead of important events. The big event of today is the German ZEW business survey, but the bigger event is the FOMC meeting tomorrow. So far, data has kept euro/dollar in balance, but this cannot last forever.
Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and sentiment moving the pair.
- Asian session: The pair slid from 1.2960 to lower levels within the range.
- Current range:Â 1.2920 to 1.2960
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.2920, 1.2865, 1.2840, 1.28 and 1.2750.
- Above: 1.2960, 1.30, 1.3050, 1.31 and 1.3175.
- There are two clear ranges: 1.2865 to 1.2920 and 1.2920 to 1.2955.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
- 9:00Â German ZEW Economic Sentiment. Exp. 5.2 points. See how to trade the ZEW figure with EUR/USD.
- 12:30 US PPI. Exp. +0.1%. Core PPI +0.1%.
- 13:00 USÂ TIC Long-Term Purchases. Exp. 24.3 billion.
* All times are GMT.
For more events and lines, see the EUR/USD.
EUR/USD Sentiment
- Europe awaits German business sentiment and inflation data: The European front will warm up later in the week with the German ZEW business survey and final inflation data for August. So far, it is also relatively quiet on the other front: Ukraine. See how to trade the ZEW figure with EUR/USD.
- Bold call for EUR/USD parity: An analyst sees euro/dollar on a downward trajectory and envisions a slide all the way down to parity. There are good reasons, and parallels to the 90s.
- Weak US industrial output effect: This is usually a second tier figure, but this time the disappointment weighed on the US dollar, pushing it lower across the board. However, the move has since reversed.
- Tensions towards the FOMC: The US continues growing nicely with Friday’s good figures reminding us of this strength. However, there are also signs of stagnation, seen in jobless claims for example. What will the Fed do?. A 7th taper is expected, but what will the sentiment be? There is speculation that the Fed will remove the word “considerable†regarding the timing of the first rate hike, but there are reasons to think otherwise. We talk about this in the latest podcast.
- Scottish reverberations: Thursday’s referendum in Scotland is controlling every move of GBP, with mixed polls, but also has implications for the euro: a Yes vote would raise the cause of Catalonia in Spain and perhaps other regions seeking independence.
In our latest podcast, we talk about the FOMC meeting.
Download it directly here.
