Today’s PMI data deluge has thus far been unable to help investor sentiment rebound from yesterdays’ risk-off feel, with equity futures once again treading water. A mixed-bag of growth indicators in the Eurozone and a fresh set of airstrikes overnight from the US (and some of their Middle Eastern partner nations) against ISIS in Syria have market participants shedding exposure to growth-correlated assets, while the greenback continues to consolidate on a lack of fresh incentives to move higher. New York Fed President Dudley spoke to the media yesterday and echoed Yellen’s dovish tone from last week’s monetary policy press conference, once again downplaying the significance of the Fed’s economic projections and the interest rate dot chart due to the lack of certainty around the confidence of those forecasts. We caution that while the balance of regional Fed presidents tend to give the minutes and summary of economic projections a more hawkish feel, the duo of Yellen and Dudley continue to remain on the dovish spectrum on the FOMC, and given they are the most influential in terms of monetary policy decisions, should thus be given the most weight in regards to their language and sentiment. While the overall case for the greenback is still bullish against most other developed currencies because of the glide-path of monetary policy, we expect the road higher to be met with a few roadblocks.
The overnight Asian session was punctuated with a stronger than expected Flash HSBC PMI reading for China, which came in at 50.5 versus 50.3 in August, with new export orders outweighing the slump in employment. The good news from purchasing managers helped put a fresh bid under the commodity complex, with both Copper and Oil managing to recoup some of yesterday’s losses, while the Shanghai Comp gained 0.87%. Currencies with strong economic ties to China like the Aussie and Loonie benefited from the more upbeat data after being shunned from investors on worries the government wouldn’t swoop if economic growth in China continued to struggle. AUDUSD displayed a welcome bounce for the bulls that have been licking their wounds, though the pair is still trying to contend with re-taking the 0.89 handle as we head into the North American open.
The round of purchasing manager data in the Eurozone was less than stellar, but not weak enough to exert any fresh downside pressure on the common-currency as bears are still looking for more concrete evidence of broad-based Quantitative Easing before recommitting. The composite reading for purchasing manager activity in zone slipped slightly to 52.3 in September from the 52.5 registered in the previous month, with some of the notable highlights being the fact that both service and manufacturing readings for France printed below the all-important 50 level, along with the fact that Germany’s manufacturing PMI capped off a dismal quarter with its lowest point since August of 2013.   The cracks in the Germany’s manufacturing sector were moderated by a stronger than expected print in the service sector, and thus hasn’t had too much of a negative effect on the Euro considering policy maker comments about the possibility of additional stimulus last weekend; as we move into the midway point of the European session, PMI datais inching its way into the high-1.28s.
Heading into the North American open, Canadian Retail Sales for the month of July were just released, and the dreadful print has seen the Loonie give back almost all of its overnight gains. The headline reading showed sales declined by 0.1% compared to the previous month, but it was the core reading of a -0.6% that smacked the Loonie from its overnight highs. The good news for the Canadian economy was that this was the first month to experience a decline in the last seven, so while the data points for July in terms of wholesale and retail sales have been disappointing, it’s too early to conclude retail consumption has rejected the uptrend in place from late last year. As we get set for the opening bell, USDCAD is climbing its way back into the mid-1.10s, though the commodity complex is helping to offset some of the effects from the retail sales numbers.
Further reading:
US Dollar Index showing signs of a corrective pullback
GBP/USD completing correction, USD/JPY could slide more before a new rally – Elliott Wave Analysis
