Blue Line 4 Week Average
The market was expecting the weekly initial unemployment claims at 305,000 to 321,000 (consensus 315,000) vs the 304,000 reported. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 315,000 (reported last week as 315,000) to 311,500.
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change on the 4 week moving average. There is always some seasonality which migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons helps remove some seasonality. The four week rolling average of initial claims are 11.3% lower (better than the 8.9% reported last week) than they were in this same week in 2013 (see chart below).
2014 claim levels are now within the normal range (around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims) of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion (see chart below).
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending July 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 304,000, a decrease of 11,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 315,000. The 4-week moving average was 311,500, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 315,000. There were no special factors impacting this week’s initial claims.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.0 percent for the week ending June 28, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 28 was 2,584,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 5,000 from 2,579,000 to 2,574,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,571,250, a decrease of 7,750 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since October 27, 2007 when it was 2,561,750. The previous week’s average was revised down by 1,250 from 2,580,250 to 2,579,000.
